牛津亚太首席经济学家：科创将长期支撑中国增长｜全球财经连线

Core Insights - Asian economies are showing resilience amid global economic uncertainties, with optimistic growth prospects for several countries in the coming quarters due to supportive government policies and regional cooperation mitigating the impact of U.S. protectionism [1][3][5] Group 1: Economic Performance - Many Asian economies, including China, India, and Southeast Asian nations, have performed well this year, partly due to the "advance ordering" effect from U.S. tariff policies, which has bolstered exports [1][3] - The manufacturing sector in China, which constitutes about 25% of its GDP, is crucial for long-term growth, with technology and innovation being key drivers for productivity enhancement [2][7] Group 2: Regional Cooperation - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and other free trade agreements are enhancing regional economic cooperation, which could provide significant GDP gains and offset some negative impacts from U.S. tariffs [5] - The shift towards regionalization in trade is expected to strengthen as Asian economies establish more free trade agreements, creating opportunities for specialization in different products across various economies [5][4] Group 3: Impact of U.S. Tariffs - U.S. tariffs have created challenges for Asian economies reliant on exports, but they are also prompting governments to consider regional trade strategies and potential shifts towards domestic demand [7] - The reliance on Asian manufacturing in global supply chains remains strong, despite increased costs due to tariffs, indicating the continued importance of Asia in global production [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The outlook for Asian economies remains positive, with expectations of sustained growth driven by technological advancements and innovation, particularly in China and South Korea [7] - The recent U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut is expected to positively influence capital flows into emerging Asian markets, enhancing investor sentiment [6]