自然堂赴港IPO，国货美妆老三的“科技牌”能否打动港股投资者？

Core Viewpoint - Chando, a Chinese beauty brand, has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking its entry into the capital market after 24 years of operation [1] Financial Performance - Chando claims to be the "third largest domestic cosmetics group in China," with projected revenues of RMB 4.292 billion, RMB 4.442 billion, and RMB 4.601 billion for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of only 3.5%, significantly lower than the industry average [2] - Net profits for the same period are projected at RMB 139 million, RMB 302 million, and RMB 190 million, showing considerable volatility [2] - The net profit margin for the first half of 2025 is reported at 7.8%, an improvement from 3.2% in 2022, but still lower than competitors like Betaini and Proya [2] Brand Dependency - Over 94% of Chando's revenue is generated from its core brand, which has ranked among the top two domestic brands for retail sales for 12 consecutive years [2][4] - Despite a multi-brand strategy, Chando's other brands contribute less than 6% of total revenue, indicating a heavy reliance on its main brand [4] Digital Transformation - Chando emphasizes its "full-chain digital business operation model," particularly its self-developed "One Inventory" system, which streamlines the supply chain and reduces inventory risks [5] - This system allows real-time ordering based on retail demand, significantly improving supply chain efficiency and reducing delivery times from weeks to days [5] Marketing and R&D Expenditure - Chando's gross margins are high, at 66.5%, 67.8%, and 69.4% from 2022 to 2024, but its sales and marketing expenses are disproportionately high, accounting for over 50% of revenue [7] - R&D expenditure is notably low, at only 2.8%, 2.1%, and 2.0% of revenue, raising concerns about the sustainability of its growth driven primarily by marketing [7] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Chando has reported negative cash flow from operating activities for 2022 to 2024, with a net outflow of RMB 295 million and RMB 5.58 million, although it turned positive in 2023 and the first half of 2025 [8] - As of June 30, 2025, the company has a net current liability of RMB 729 million, indicating ongoing liquidity pressures despite improvements [9][10] Market Timing and Strategy - The timing of Chando's IPO is seen as critical, as the Hong Kong consumer sector is currently underperforming, and investors are becoming more rational regarding "domestic products" [11] - The company plans to use the proceeds from the IPO to enhance its direct-to-consumer (DTC) capabilities, expand its brand portfolio, invest in R&D, and pursue international expansion [12] Historical Context - Chando was once a leader in the beauty market, but its cautious approach to e-commerce and reliance on traditional channels have left it lagging behind more aggressive competitors [13] - The company is still controlled by the Zheng family, which influences its conservative management style [14]