Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-30 12:42Group 1 - The stock prices of China's "three oil giants" collectively declined on September 30, with China Petroleum (00857.HK) down 2.75%, China National Offshore Oil (00883.HK) down 1.24%, and China Petroleum & Chemical (00386.HK) down 1.22% [2][3] - In the A-share market, oil and gas stocks also faced pressure, with China Petroleum (601857.SH) down 1.35%, China National Offshore Oil (600938.SH) down 1.02%, and China Petroleum & Chemical (600028.SH) also declining [3] - Reports on September 29 indicated that OPEC+ is likely to approve a new round of oil production increases in their online meeting on October 5, with an increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day, aiming to regain market share [3][4] Group 2 - Following the news, concerns about oversupply in the oil market resurfaced, leading to a significant drop in international oil prices, with WTI crude futures falling 3.86% to $63.18 per barrel on September 29, and continuing to decline to $62.72 per barrel [4] - OPEC+ currently accounts for about half of global oil production, including member countries from OPEC and Russia along with other allies [4] - If the production increase plan is implemented in November, it could further expand global oil supply, exacerbating the risk of oversupply and putting pressure on oil prices [5] Group 3 - Geopolitical factors, including a new plan announced by the U.S. and Israel to end the Gaza conflict, have significantly reduced geopolitical risks, contributing to further declines in oil prices [6] - Analysts suggest that potential oversupply and changes in geopolitical risk premiums may dominate trading in the short term, with market focus on OPEC+'s next actions and the fragile diplomatic process regarding Gaza [6] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown issue and upcoming non-farm payroll data release could also impact market risks and oil demand expectations [6]