Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-30 13:06Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Pop Mart's U.S. market is still in its early development stage, with no other toy/hobby stores offering a similar consumer experience [1][11] - Five out of six visited stores had higher foot traffic and transaction volumes than nearby stores, second only to Apple stores [10] Store Visits - Morgan Stanley analysts visited six Pop Mart stores in New York and New Jersey, including locations in American Dream Mall and Jersey City [2][4] Key Findings - New Customer Base and Product Variety: Many new customers inquired about the "blind box" products, indicating that retail stores effectively promote Pop Mart's diverse IP/product portfolio [6] - Store Layout and Customer Base: Most of the 50 U.S. stores are located in residential areas, with fewer in core commercial centers, highlighting the need for continued expansion to build a solid core customer base [6] - Operational Optimization: Some stores show good profitability, but there is room for improvement, such as small store sizes (around 100 square meters) and the need for enhanced digital operations [6] Customer Demographics - Compared to other markets, a higher proportion of children (accompanied by adults) are observed in U.S. stores, likely due to stronger purchasing power among American consumers [9] Foot Traffic and Transaction Volume - Most visited stores maintained significant foot traffic even without selling Labubu plush toys, with five out of six stores outperforming nearby competitors [10] Market Competition - Currently, no other toy/hobby stores provide a consumer experience comparable to Pop Mart, characterized by the joy of unboxing, attractive product designs, and a rich IP matrix [11] Popular IPs and Product Display - In addition to Labubu, popular IPs include Crybaby, Skullpanda, Hirono, Twinkle Twinkle, Dimoo, and some licensed Japanese anime/Disney products [12] - Each store offers a different selection of products, allowing for regular product rotation to maintain freshness [16] Valuation and Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley rates Pop Mart as a preferred choice in the consumer sector in China/Hong Kong, with a target price of HKD 382 [17][18] - The valuation method anticipates a target P/E ratio of 42 times for 2025, considering the company's global expansion potential [20] - Factors driving potential valuation increases include sustained sales momentum in China and overseas, successful launches of popular products and IPs, and growth in revenue per square meter [21]