美银：铜供应短缺加剧，2026年铜价预期上调至1.13万美元/吨

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for copper prices remains bullish, with Bank of America raising its price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 due to supply disruptions, stabilizing demand, and low inventory levels [1][3]. Group 1: Supply Side - The global copper market is heavily reliant on major mines, which are currently facing operational disruptions. The Escondida mine's output is expected to fall below capacity, while the Grasberg mine is experiencing a significant production drop due to an accident, potentially increasing the global copper deficit by 270,000 tons in 2026 [5][11]. - The Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo has also reduced its mid-term production target due to water ingress issues, further impacting supply [5][11]. - The processing fees for copper concentrate have reached historical lows, indicating a structural supply shortage rather than a temporary disruption [10]. Group 2: Demand Side - European copper demand has shown signs of recovery, with a current year-on-year growth rate of approximately 2%, indicating a gradual economic rebound [6]. - In China, while copper procurement has slowed, investments in the power grid are expected to support demand stability, preventing a significant decline [6]. Group 3: Inventory Side - Global copper inventories are at historically low levels, with the London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses nearly empty, exacerbated by trade expectations that did not materialize [7][12]. - The projected inventory for 2026 is expected to drop to 546,000 tons, covering only one week of global demand, which could lead to significant price volatility if supply disruptions occur [12].