证券ETF强势吸金超260亿 ，国泰领衔，华宝兴业、天弘追近

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has continued its upward trend since September, but the brokerage sector is still undergoing adjustments, with a notable increase in ETF inflows indicating some investor optimism towards the sector [1][2][3]. Market Performance - The brokerage index saw a nearly 5% increase on September 29, yet it recorded a decline of 4.73% for the entire month of September [2][6]. - During September, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rose by 0.64%, 6.54%, and 12.04%, respectively [5]. - The brokerage sector experienced significant inflows into ETFs, with the Guotai Junan ETF attracting over 10 billion yuan, making it the top stock ETF for net inflows in September [2][6]. Investor Sentiment - There is a growing interest in the brokerage sector due to its low valuations combined with high growth potential, leading to speculation about future investment opportunities [3][10]. - The recent surge in the brokerage sector is attributed to active market trading, positive policy environment, and improving industry fundamentals [6][12]. Fund Inflows - From September 1 to September 29, the Guotai Junan ETF, Huabao Brokerage ETF, and Tianhong Securities ETF saw net inflows of 109.82 billion yuan, 60.30 billion yuan, and 25.23 billion yuan, respectively [6][8]. - Cumulatively, ETFs related to "securities" and "brokerage" have seen a total net inflow of 266.06 billion yuan since September [6][7]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the brokerage sector will experience a recovery in valuations and performance, especially during the third quarter reporting period [10][12]. - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market has increased significantly, indicating a rise in market activity and investor risk appetite [11]. - Forecasts suggest that the net profit of the brokerage sector could increase by approximately 48% year-on-year by the third quarter of 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) expected to rise to 7.7% [11][13]. Valuation Considerations - The brokerage sector is currently viewed as undervalued, with active equity funds holding only 0.64% of their portfolios in brokerage stocks, the lowest level since 2018 [13][14]. - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio for A-share brokerages is 1.60, which is in the 39th percentile since 2014, indicating potential for valuation recovery [13][14]. Investment Strategy - Investment strategies should focus on high-quality brokerage firms with strong wealth management and international business capabilities, as well as undervalued mid-sized brokerages [15][16]. - The market's structural changes and the introduction of new policies are expected to create further opportunities for brokerage firms, particularly in areas like mergers and acquisitions and wealth management [16].