年内净流入1.17万亿！南向资金加仓科技 阿里成“最靓的仔”

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance in 2025, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 33% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing over 44% [1][2]. Southbound Capital Inflow - Record inflows of southbound capital have been a significant driver of the Hong Kong stock market's rise, with a total net inflow of 1.17 trillion HKD by September 30, 2025, marking a historical high [2][3]. - In September alone, the net inflow reached 188.52 billion HKD, demonstrating strong confidence among domestic investors [2][3]. - The technology sector has been the primary focus for southbound capital, particularly Alibaba, which has seen continuous net buying for 26 trading days [2][3]. Investment Trends - The top ten stocks bought by southbound capital in September included Alibaba (757.09 billion HKD), Tencent (73.73 billion HKD), and Meituan (60.94 billion HKD) [3]. - Analysts note a sustained increase in allocation towards the technology sector, especially in areas like AI, semiconductors, and software services [3][4]. Macroeconomic Factors - The inflow of southbound capital is driven by multiple factors, including a stabilizing domestic economy, supportive growth policies, and a strengthening RMB, which enhance the attractiveness of Hong Kong stocks [4][5]. - The easing of global liquidity pressures due to a slowing rate hike cycle by the Federal Reserve has also prompted foreign capital to reassess emerging market investments [4][5]. Valuation and Investment Strategy - Hong Kong stocks are currently valued at historical lows, making them attractive compared to A-shares [4][5]. - Investment strategies suggest a "barbell strategy," balancing growth sectors with high-dividend defensive assets to achieve a mix of risk and return [4][5]. Alibaba's Performance - Alibaba has emerged as a focal point for southbound capital, with a net buying amount of approximately 757.09 billion HKD in September, significantly outpacing Tencent [6][7]. - As of September 29, southbound capital held 20.97 billion shares of Alibaba, representing 10.99% of its total shares, with a market value of 360.67 billion HKD [5][6]. Reasons for Alibaba's Surge - Alibaba's stock price increased from 115.70 HKD at the end of August to 177 HKD by the end of September, a rise of 52.98% [6][7]. - Key factors driving this surge include breakthroughs in AI strategy, strong earnings, increased capital expenditures, and a clarified regulatory environment [7][8]. Future Outlook - Analysts maintain an optimistic outlook for Alibaba, citing its comprehensive AI capabilities and the potential for continued growth in the AI and cloud sectors [9][10]. - The future performance of Alibaba will depend on the sustainability of domestic and international liquidity improvements and the efficiency of its technology innovations translating into profits [9][10].