两年来最高点：分析师预测匈牙利福林未来走势

Core Insights - The Hungarian Forint has recently reached its highest point in two years, with expectations for its appreciation against the Euro to continue through the remainder of 2025, potentially alleviating inflation expectations [1][4] Currency Exchange Rate Forecast - MBH Bank predicts that the average exchange rate of the Hungarian Forint against the Euro will be 401 in 2025, with an end-of-year rate of 397.5. For 2026, the average exchange rate is expected to reach 400.3 [2] Economic Growth Projections - The Hungarian economy is currently supported by the service, retail, and hospitality sectors, while adverse weather has impacted agriculture and weak demand has affected industry. GDP growth is forecasted at 0.8% for 2025, with a recovery expected in 2026, driven by external demand and new investments, potentially reaching 3% [5] Inflation and Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank anticipates an average inflation rate of 4.5% for 2025, decreasing to 3.9% in 2026. The core inflation rate fell to 3.9% in August, the lowest in four years. The benchmark interest rate has been maintained at 6.5% for over a year, with no changes expected before the end of 2025. However, anticipated rate cuts by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve may provide room for easing in Hungary, with projections of a decline to 6.0% by the end of 2026 and 5.0% by 2027 [6] Fiscal Deficit and Labor Market Trends - The government deficit is expected to be 4.6% of GDP in 2025, an improvement from 4.9% the previous year. Employment is projected to continue growing, with an average unemployment rate of 4.4% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026. Despite the Forint's strength supporting disinflation, the government plans to gradually lift "price guarantee caps" in the second half of 2026, which may temporarily boost inflation [7]