Market Supply and Demand - The new housing market has been operating steadily since 2025, but sales have weakened since the second quarter, with a slight recovery in September due to improved supply [1] - The second-hand housing market continues to "exchange price for volume," with a year-on-year increase in transaction volume for key cities in the first three quarters, showing a rebound in September after a temporary cooling period from June to August [1] Housing Prices - From January to August, the average price of second-hand homes in 100 cities fell by 5.08%, with an expanding month-on-month decline in the second quarter, while the third quarter maintained a low decline, indicating that "exchange price for volume" remains the market trend [1] - In contrast, the new housing market saw a cumulative price increase of 1.54% in 100 cities from January to August, driven by the entry of quality improvement projects, although there is significant differentiation among cities, with third and fourth-tier cities still experiencing price declines [1] Land Market - Real estate companies have focused on acquiring land in core cities this year, leading to a 13% year-on-year increase in land transfer fees for residential land in 300 cities, although the transaction area decreased by about 9% [2] - The land market has cooled since the third quarter, with preliminary statistics showing a year-on-year decline of approximately 14% in the area and 9% in transfer fees for residential land in 300 cities [2] Policy Outlook - With increasing economic pressure in the third quarter, there is a growing necessity for stronger macro policies in the fourth quarter, especially following the Federal Reserve's initiation of a rate-cutting cycle, which provides more room for domestic monetary policy [2] - The government has reiterated the need for strong measures to stabilize the real estate market, with expectations for continued focus on "stabilizing and stopping the decline" in real estate policies in the fourth quarter [2] Market Outlook - The acquisition of quality land by leading real estate companies in core cities is expected to support new housing sales in the fourth quarter, while cities with limited new project supply will continue to focus on inventory reduction, indicating a continuation of market differentiation [3] - The transaction activity in the second-hand housing market is expected to moderately rebound in the fourth quarter, although the "exchange price for volume" trend is likely to persist in the short term [3]
城楼网|四季度房地产政策有望加力 市场延续分化复苏
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-30 14:19