黄力晨：降息预期升温 继续支撑黄金价格

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market's expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the risk of a government shutdown in the U.S. are driving gold prices to new historical highs [1][2][4] - Gold prices have shown strong performance, reaching a new high of $3871, but experienced a pullback due to profit-taking after the initial surge [2][4] - The support level for gold is identified at $3800, with a secondary support at $3788, while the resistance level is at the historical high of $3819 [1][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with projections indicating two more cuts within the year, each by 25 basis points, leading to a nearly 90% probability of a cut in October [2] - The U.S. government is facing a potential shutdown, with negotiations between President Trump and congressional leaders failing to reach an agreement, which could impact market sentiment [2] - Technical indicators suggest that while the short-term outlook remains bullish for gold, there may be a need for adjustment due to overbought conditions indicated by KDJ and RSI [4]