美国消费者信心降至五个月低点 政府关门风险加大美联储决策难度

Group 1 - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. fell to 94.2 in September, down 3.6 points from August and below the expected 96, marking the lowest level since April [1] - The assessment of the current economic situation by consumers has significantly deteriorated, with the index for "current conditions" reaching a one-year low, indicating a rapid decline in public confidence [1] - The percentage of respondents who believe job opportunities are "plentiful" dropped to 26.9%, a decrease of over 3 percentage points from the previous month, while those who find jobs "hard to get" remained at 19.1% [1] Group 2 - The number of job openings in the U.S. increased slightly to 7.23 million in August, but year-over-year, job openings decreased by 422,000, a decline of 5.5%, indicating a retreat from peak hiring demand [2] - The resignation rate in August decreased by 75,000, reflecting a reduced willingness of workers to change jobs, which suggests a tightening labor market [2] - Federal Reserve officials are cautious about balancing inflation and employment, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and December, totaling a 50 basis point reduction for the year [2] Group 3 - The risk of a government shutdown looms, with a deadline of September 30 for Congress to pass a temporary funding bill, which could lead to a halt in economic data releases from key statistical agencies [3] - If the government shuts down, critical economic data such as the non-farm payroll report and consumer price index may be delayed, impacting the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed policy decisions [3] - Historical precedent shows that during a previous government shutdown in 2013, the employment report was delayed, highlighting the potential consequences of a data vacuum [3] Group 4 - Political tensions between Democrats and Republicans over budget issues remain high, with efforts to push preferred funding bills amidst sharp criticisms regarding healthcare funding cuts [4] - The lack of scheduled meetings between the White House and congressional leaders raises concerns about the potential for a last-minute compromise to avoid a government shutdown [5] - The political risks and market impacts of a prolonged deadlock are significant, even if Congress acts quickly to restore government operations after a technical shutdown [5]