释放呵护流动性宽松信号 央行公告节后加量续作买断式逆回购

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation on October 9, 2025, to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a term of 3 months [1] Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - In October, 800 billion yuan of 3-month reverse repos and 500 billion yuan of 6-month reverse repos are set to mature [3] - After the 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation on October 9, there will be a net injection of 300 billion yuan in 3-month reverse repos [3] - The PBOC is expected to continue injecting medium-term liquidity through reverse repos for the fifth consecutive month [3] Group 2: Market Conditions and Government Actions - The government is expected to issue a large volume of bonds in October, and the National Development and Reform Commission has announced the acceleration of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial instruments [4] - The strong performance of the stock market and the "migration" of household deposits in October may tighten liquidity, prompting the PBOC to inject medium-term liquidity [4] - Analysts suggest that the PBOC's reverse repo operations are aimed at stabilizing liquidity ahead of the holiday season [4] Group 3: Future Expectations - The PBOC may continue to use reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) tools to inject liquidity, but the scale of net liquidity injection may decrease from the previous monthly level of 600 billion yuan [5] - There is speculation that the PBOC may implement a new round of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts in the fourth quarter, which could lead to a larger scale of long-term liquidity injection [5] - Overall, the PBOC's policy stance is expected to remain supportive, with a focus on fiscal strength and monetary easing [5]