Economic Overview - The economic situation in the US during the first half of the year is poor, with a significant decline in GDP expected for the second quarter, potentially down 7%-11% year-on-year and up to 40% on a seasonally adjusted annual rate [2][3] - The unemployment rate is severely underestimated, with official figures showing 14% in April, but actual estimates suggest it could be as high as 30% [3] Political Implications - The upcoming election influences the decision not to release negative economic forecasts, as such data could severely impact the incumbent's chances [4] - The administration's focus on "America First" and blame-shifting is a strategy to maintain support from its base, particularly among economically vulnerable groups [4] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has implemented four rounds of quantitative easing (QE) since 2008, with the most recent rounds aimed at stabilizing the economy and supporting government debt [5][6] - The current fiscal deficit is projected to reach $3.7 trillion, significantly higher than previous years, indicating a reliance on debt issuance to manage economic challenges [7][8] Debt and Monetary Policy - The US is expected to face a fiscal deficit exceeding $8 trillion this year, with a debt-to-GDP ratio projected to surpass 152%, the highest since World War II [8] - The Federal Reserve's bond purchasing has decreased to $50 billion daily, raising concerns about the impact of continued debt issuance without corresponding monetary support [8] Global Economic Impact - The US's monetary policy, particularly quantitative easing, may lead to asset bubbles and potential currency wars, affecting global economic stability [9][10] - The pandemic has accelerated a trend towards de-globalization, which could lead to increased competition and challenges for countries that were previously reliant on global supply chains [11]
美元与海：负债率将突破152%！美国印钞对中国有什么影响？
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-30 16:46