牛津亚太首席经济学家卢姿蕙：科创将长期支撑中国增长

Core Insights - The resilience of the Asian economy amidst global uncertainty is highlighted, with optimism for growth in several Asian economies due to supportive government policies and regional cooperation mitigating the impact of U.S. protectionism [1][5][7] - Technological innovation is identified as a key driver for long-term growth in China, with a focus on enhancing productivity through advancements in AI and other technologies [2][3][7] - The impact of U.S. tariff policies has led to an "advance order" phenomenon, benefiting Asian exporters as Western consumers stock up on goods to avoid higher future tariffs [3][5] Economic Performance - Many Asian economies, including India and Southeast Asian nations, are expected to maintain healthy growth momentum in the near term, despite potential slight slowdowns due to diminishing effects of advance orders [3][7] - The manufacturing sector in Asia remains crucial for global supply chains, with Asian countries continuing to play a significant role despite increased costs from tariffs [3][5] Regional Cooperation - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and other free trade agreements are fostering economic cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region, potentially offsetting some negative impacts of U.S. tariffs [5][6] - Studies suggest that RCEP members could gain approximately 2% of GDP in additional benefits if trade commitments are upheld, which could help mitigate the effects of rising U.S. tariffs [5][6] Monetary Policy Impact - The recent 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is viewed positively for emerging Asian markets, as it may lead to increased capital inflows and improved investor sentiment [6][7] - The anticipated weakening of the U.S. dollar could further support investment in Asian markets, enhancing overall economic conditions [6][7] Future Outlook - Long-term growth in Asia is expected to be driven by technological advancements and innovation, particularly in countries like China and South Korea [7] - The shift towards regional trade strategies and potential internal demand transformation may become necessary for Asian economies facing challenges from external trade environments [7]