专访牛津亚太首席经济学家卢姿蕙：科创将长期支撑中国增长

Core Insights - Asian economies demonstrate resilience amid global economic uncertainty, with several countries showing strong performance due to the "pre-order" effect from U.S. tariff policies, which has bolstered exports [1][3] - Optimism for growth in certain Asian economies over the next few quarters is supported by government policies and deeper regional cooperation that can mitigate the negative impacts of U.S. protectionism [1][3] - Technological advancement and innovation are crucial for enhancing productivity in China, which has a significant manufacturing base contributing to long-term economic growth [1][2] Economic Performance - Many Asian economies, including India and Southeast Asian nations, are expected to maintain healthy growth momentum despite challenges posed by U.S. tariffs [3] - The "pre-order" phenomenon, where Western consumers purchase more Asian goods to avoid higher future tariffs, has supported many Asian manufacturers and exporters [3] - Future demand may experience slight deceleration as the impact of pre-orders wanes, but proactive government measures are anticipated to cushion potential slowdowns [3] Regional Cooperation - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and other free trade agreements are enhancing regional economic cooperation, which is seen as a core driver for sustained growth in the Asia-Pacific region [5] - Studies suggest that RCEP members could gain approximately 2% of GDP in additional benefits if trade commitments are upheld, potentially offsetting some impacts of rising U.S. tariffs [5] Technological Innovation - The focus on technological innovation is expected to continue, with governments likely to allocate more resources to enhance productivity and long-term economic growth [2][7] - Countries like China and South Korea are positioned to benefit from ongoing technological advancements, providing a solid foundation for future growth [7] Capital Flows and Market Sentiment - The recent 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to positively influence capital flows into emerging Asian markets, as it narrows the interest rate differential with the U.S. [6] - The anticipated weakening of the U.S. dollar may further support investor sentiment in the region, contributing to stock market gains [6]