帮主郑重聊美股：连涨五个月的热闹里，藏着政府停摆的“暗雷”

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market has shown a small upward trend, with the Dow Jones increasing by over 80 points, the S&P 500 rising by 0.4%, and the Nasdaq gaining 0.3% [3] - In September, the Dow Jones rose by 1.87%, while the Nasdaq surged by 5.61%, continuing a five-month streak of gains [3] Government Shutdown Concerns - The potential government shutdown is a significant concern, as it could disrupt economic data collection, particularly the non-farm payroll report scheduled for release [3][4] - The Vice President indicated a high probability of a shutdown, with estimates from cryptocurrency platforms suggesting an 85% chance [3] - Analysts express that if the shutdown extends beyond two weeks, market sentiment could shift from cautious observation to panic [3] Trade Policy Developments - Former President Trump has announced new tariffs on lumber and furniture, as well as threats of tariffs on foreign films and a 100% tax on brand-name drugs [4] - These trade actions may not have an immediate impact on the stock market but could gradually affect corporate profits [4] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on long-term stability rather than short-term market fluctuations, especially in light of the looming government shutdown [4] - The current market rally should be viewed with caution, as underlying risks remain unaddressed [4]