Group 1 - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has extended its cobalt export suspension until October 15, 2025, which may impact market expectations and inventory depletion rates in the short term [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the allocation of future cobalt quotas in the DRC and the limited incremental supply from Indonesia's MHP in 2024 is highlighted, indicating that even significant increases in production may not compensate for the shortfall caused by the DRC's quota policy [2] - According to customs data, China's cobalt intermediate imports from June to August were 19,000 tons, 13,800 tons, and 5,200 tons, reflecting significant month-over-month declines of -61.62%, -27.26%, and -62.05% respectively [2] Group 2 - It is projected that global effective cobalt supply will decrease by 34% from 282,000 tons to 185,000 tons in 2025 due to the DRC's export suspension lasting seven months, with further extensions potentially exacerbating raw material shortages [2] - The tightening supply situation is expected to lead to a continued rise in cobalt prices in the short term, with strong support for long-term price stability due to the DRC government's clear stance on cobalt supply management [2] - The stock price of Liqin Resources (02245) has increased by over 50% in the month, with a current price of 22.14 HKD, reflecting a rise of 4.43% and a trading volume of 338 million HKD [3]
力勤资源再涨超4% 钴价远期中枢有较强支撑 机构强调刚果金后续出口指标分配不确定性