美国政府关门冲击市场，黄金升破3900美元再创新高，美股期货、日股下跌

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government is set to shut down again since 2019, leading to increased uncertainty in global financial markets [1][4]. Market Reactions - U.S. stock futures, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, fell approximately 0.5% during Asian trading hours [1]. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 167.40 points, or 0.36%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also saw declines of 0.49% and 0.53%, respectively [2]. - Asian markets exhibited mixed performance; Japan's Nikkei 225 index dropped by 1%, while South Korea's KOSPI index rose by 0.7% [5][6]. Economic Indicators - The government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, including the non-farm payroll report, which is crucial for assessing economic health [4]. - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October has surged from 90% to 96% due to the uncertainty created by the shutdown [4][17]. Safe-Haven Assets - Increased risk aversion has driven COMEX gold prices above $3,900 per ounce, reaching a record high, while spot gold rose by 0.2% to $3,865 per ounce [2][7]. - The U.S. dollar index remained stable at 97.84 after three days of decline, with the dollar against the yen slightly increasing to 148.1 [7]. Bond Market - The U.S. Treasury market remained stable during Asian trading, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield holding steady at 4.150% [10]. Commodity Market - Oil prices stabilized after two days of decline, as investors weighed OPEC+'s potential increase in production against the backdrop of declining U.S. crude inventories [13].