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邓正红能源软实力：机械增产削弱价值创新能力 地缘边际效用递减 国际油价走低
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-01 04:03

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing fluctuations due to expectations of increased production by OPEC, supply surplus from the resumption of oil exports in the Kurdish region of Iraq, and geopolitical risks affecting supply and demand dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - As of September 30, international oil prices declined, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil settling at $62.37 per barrel, down $1.08 (1.70%), and Brent crude oil at $67.02 per barrel, down $0.95 (1.40%) [1]. - In September, WTI crude oil saw a cumulative decline of 1.72%, while Brent crude oil had a slight increase of 0.19% [1]. - Year-to-date, WTI crude oil has decreased by 7.06%, and Brent crude oil has decreased by 6.93% [1]. Group 2: OPEC's Production Strategy - OPEC is set to meet to discuss accelerating production increases, potentially adding 500,000 barrels per day over three months to regain market share [1][2]. - The International Energy Agency predicts a record surplus in the global oil market next year, with significant oversupply expected in Q1 2024 [1][3]. - The U.S. crude oil production surpassed 13.6 million barrels per day in July, exceeding previous forecasts [1]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Supply Dynamics - Recent drone attacks in Ukraine have raised supply risks, while the potential for a peace agreement in Gaza could normalize shipping through the Suez Canal, reducing geopolitical risk premiums [2][4]. - The oil market is transitioning from a supply-driven model to one influenced by demand and risk factors, reflecting a rebalancing of military, energy, and monetary soft power [2][3]. Group 4: Soft Power and Market Dynamics - OPEC's mechanical production increase strategy is seen as weakening its value innovation capabilities, with the proposed phased increase reflecting an attempt to rebuild market trust [3][4]. - The U.S. shale oil industry is leveraging digital technologies to achieve cost advantages, with production costs dropping to $26.94 per barrel [3]. - The International Energy Agency forecasts a surplus of 1.9 million barrels per day by 2026, indicating a shift in market dynamics driven by consumer countries [3].