中国工程院外籍院士张亚勤：AI五大新趋势，物理智能快速演进

Core Insights - The AI industry is rapidly evolving, leading to accelerated iterations across various sectors, with significant opportunities arising from the integration of information, physical, and biological intelligence [1]. Group 1: Trends in AI Development - The first trend is the transition from discriminative AI to generative AI, now moving towards agent-based AI, with task lengths doubling and accuracy exceeding 50% in the past seven months [3]. - The second trend indicates a slowdown in the scaling law during the pre-training phase, shifting focus to post-training stages like inference and agent applications, while the overall intellectual ceiling continues to advance [3]. - The third trend highlights the rapid development of physical and biological intelligence, particularly in the smart driving sector, predicting that by 2030, 10% of vehicles will possess Level 4 autonomous driving capabilities [3]. Group 2: AI Risks and Industry Structure - The fourth trend points to a significant increase in AI risks, with the emergence of agent-based AI doubling the associated risks, necessitating greater attention from global enterprises and governments [4]. - The fifth trend reveals a new industrial landscape characterized by foundational large models, vertical models, and edge models, with expectations that by 2026, there will be around 8-10 foundational large models globally, with China and the US each having 3-4 [4]. - The future is expected to favor open-source models, with a projected ratio of 4:1 between open-source and closed-source models [4].