美国政府停摆！80万雇员恐被停薪，周五非农报告大概率“难产”

Group 1: Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. federal government officially shut down due to a failure to reach an agreement on a short-term spending plan, affecting hundreds of thousands of federal employees who will not receive timely paychecks [1] - The duration of the shutdown is critical; the longer it lasts, the greater the impact on economic growth and businesses reliant on federal operations [1] - The last shutdown in late 2018 to early 2019 lasted 34 days, affecting 340,000 employees, while this shutdown could see over 800,000 employees forced to take unpaid leave [2] Group 2: Economic Data and Reports - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not release or collect economic data during the shutdown, jeopardizing the timely publication of the September non-farm payroll report [3] - Delays in economic data releases will shift market focus to alternative data sources, although the quality of delayed reports may be compromised [3] Group 3: Private Sector Effects - Businesses dependent on federal operations may face loss of business or delays in critical approvals, as seen during the 2013 shutdown when Lockheed Martin had to furlough 3,000 employees [4] - Small businesses with government contracts may have to lay off employees and scale back operations due to payment delays [4] Group 4: Economic Growth Projections - The shutdown is expected to reduce government spending and project delays, leading to a decrease in economic activity; the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated a 0.4% decline in GDP growth during the last shutdown [6] - The current shutdown's impact may be more severe, potentially mirroring the 2013 shutdown, which caused a 0.6% decline in annualized growth [6] Group 5: Tourism and Travel Industry - The U.S. Travel Association warned that the tourism industry could lose $1 billion per week during the shutdown [7] - Transportation Security Administration (TSA) employees will work without pay, which may lead to operational issues similar to those experienced during the 2019 shutdown [7] - National parks will attempt to remain open using ticket revenue, but concerns about facility maintenance and potential damage have been raised [7]