【首席观察】人民币的温度

Core Viewpoint - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is gaining momentum as more enterprises, including foreign and third-country trade partners, are actively requesting RMB settlements, reflecting a shift from a policy-driven approach to a market-driven one [3][4][14]. Group 1: RMB Usage in Cross-Border Transactions - In Q2 of this year, RMB cross-border transaction settlements surpassed those in USD for the first time, with 68% of surveyed enterprises using RMB for cross-border trade settlements [3][4]. - The primary reason for using RMB cited by 71% of enterprises is "asset safety" [3]. - The RMB is increasingly viewed as a stable and convenient currency, allowing enterprises to avoid dependence on the USD [8][11]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investment Trends - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, RMB assets have attracted global investors, leading to significant inflows into RMB-denominated bonds and A-shares [8][9]. - As of August 2025, 1,170 foreign institutions have entered the Chinese bond market, holding approximately 4 trillion RMB in bonds [9]. - The RMB's role is evolving from a settlement currency to an investment currency, with potential to test the boundaries of becoming a reserve currency [15]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Policy Developments - The establishment of the Digital RMB International Operation Center in Shanghai aims to enhance cross-border payment systems and facilitate the internationalization of the RMB [12][13]. - Recent policy initiatives, such as the support for foreign institutions to conduct bond repurchase transactions, are designed to improve liquidity and operational efficiency in the RMB market [9][12]. - The RMB's internationalization is supported by a transaction-driven infrastructure that enhances its usability and market acceptance [10][11]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Directions - Despite the progress, over 60% of enterprises find cross-border RMB policies complex, and nearly 50% cite capital flow restrictions as a major bottleneck [17]. - Future strategies should focus on simplifying policies, developing onshore derivative markets for risk hedging, and creating tailored financial products to encourage RMB usage among enterprises [18]. - The goal is to transition the RMB from a "optional" asset to a "must-hold" currency in global trade and finance, requiring comprehensive financial reforms and international collaboration [18][19].