中信证券：中秋国庆假期预订呈现量价齐升态势

Core Insights - The hotel industry is currently experiencing a recovery in demand, a rebalancing of supply and demand, and an accelerated increase in market share for leading companies [1] Demand Side - In September, the industry's RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) saw a continued narrowing of the year-on-year decline, with mid-range and high-end hotels performing better than economy hotels, and first-tier and new first-tier cities outperforming lower-tier markets [1] - There is a clear trend of recovery in business demand, with bookings for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays showing an increase in both volume and price, alongside a noticeable trend towards quality consumption [1] - The hotel industry's RevPAR is expected to achieve a year-on-year growth in the mid-to-high single digits [1] Supply Side - Supply is maintaining rapid growth, but there is significant structural differentiation, with economy hotels and lower-tier markets being the main growth drivers [1] - Leading companies are experiencing faster growth compared to their peers [1] Investment Recommendations - The company is optimistic about the continued narrowing of the year-on-year gap in RevPAR for leading hotel groups, with the potential to achieve stability or even positive growth next year, highlighting a valuable investment window [1] - Two investment themes are suggested: 1. Short-term positioning in the fourth quarter for companies with clear catalysts (e.g., retail Double Eleven) and high growth certainty in hotel and retail businesses [1] 2. Mid-term positioning in companies that will benefit from the recovery in business demand and the increasing concentration in the industry, while also focusing on organizational evolution and product optimization [1] - The current valuation of the hotel industry is considered reasonable and slightly low, with leading companies possessing strong investment value [1]