3900在望！美国“黑天鹅”到来，黄金多头狂欢不止

Group 1 - The U.S. government has officially shut down, putting further downward pressure on the dollar and driving gold prices to new highs [1][3] - Spot gold has risen for five consecutive days, reaching $3,890 per ounce, while New York futures touched $3,900 per ounce [1] - Silver has also increased by over 1%, nearing $47.5 per ounce, just 5% away from its historical peak [1] Group 2 - The Senate has rejected two bipartisan funding bills, leading to the first government shutdown in seven years [3] - If the shutdown extends beyond two weeks, it could increase downside risks to economic growth and raise the likelihood of more accommodative policies from the Federal Reserve [3] - Gold prices have surged nearly 48% this year, potentially marking the largest annual increase since 1979 [3] Group 3 - The monthly inflow into gold ETFs reached a three-year high in September, indicating strong investor interest [6] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have heightened gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6] - Analysts expect gold prices to continue rising, with some predicting a test of the $4,000 per ounce resistance level [7] Group 4 - The government shutdown may delay the release of key economic data, including the non-farm payroll report [7] - The JOLTS report indicated a slight increase in job vacancies in August, while hiring numbers declined, reflecting a weak labor market [7] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month are at 97%, with a 76% chance of another cut in December [7]