Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is experiencing its first government shutdown in nearly seven years, leading to the longest decline of the dollar in a month, with historical data indicating that government shutdowns typically exert pressure on the dollar [1] Group 1: Dollar Performance - The dollar has fallen to its lowest level since 2022, influenced by uncertainties surrounding policies during the Trump administration, an expanding deficit, and pressures on the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - The options market reflects a trend of further downside risk for the dollar, as indicated by the risk reversal index, which measures the demand gap between bullish and bearish trades [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Jefferies' Chief European Strategist, Mohit Kumar, suggests that while stock market declines and U.S. Treasury increases may be moderate, the foreign exchange market is unlikely to reverse its current trend [1] - The duration of the government shutdown is critical; the longer it lasts, the greater the pressure on the dollar [1]
政府停摆施压美元 风险指标显下行风险
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-01 09:34