黄金期货，前三季度大涨超47%

Core Insights - The global commodity futures market has shown a clear divergence in performance during the first three quarters of the year, with the CRB price index closing at 300.6 points, reflecting a cumulative increase of 1.31% [1] - Precious metals, particularly U.S. platinum futures, have significantly outperformed other commodities, with platinum futures showing the highest cumulative increase of 77.45% [2][3] - The outlook for the fourth quarter suggests that the macro environment for commodities may stabilize due to the onset of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, although the divergence in commodity performance is expected to continue due to fundamental differences among various commodities [1][5] Commodity Performance Overview - Among the 32 major global commodity futures, 12 commodities achieved positive returns in the first three quarters, representing 37.5% of the total [1] - The top-performing commodities include: - U.S. platinum futures: 77.45% - COMEX silver futures: 60.12% - COMEX gold futures: 47.35% - U.S. palladium futures: 42.11% [2][3] - Conversely, several commodities experienced significant declines, with ICE orange juice futures dropping by 50.23%, and ICE cocoa futures down by 41.91% [4][5] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Analysts indicate that the strong performance of platinum is supported by both macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics, with a projected supply-demand gap for platinum expected to reach a historically high level in 2025 [5] - The anticipated continuation of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle is expected to further support commodity prices, particularly gold, which is projected to maintain a bullish trend due to ongoing U.S. government debt issues [6] - In the oil market, an increase in supply coupled with seasonal demand decline is expected to create downward pressure on prices, with Brent crude oil futures projected to range between $59 and $74 per barrel [6][7] - For copper, the combination of limited supply growth due to production incidents and strong demand from the renewable energy sector is expected to positively influence prices, with forecasts suggesting a trading range of $9,800 to $11,000 per ton [7]