Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-01 10:01Core Insights - International gold prices have reached new highs, with London gold surpassing $3,895 per ounce and COMEX gold exceeding $3,900 per ounce, marking a historical record [1][4][14] - The rising gold prices have led to increased prices for gold jewelry in the consumer market, coinciding with the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, resulting in a surge in gold consumption [4][8] Market Trends - The price of gold jewelry has reached approximately 888 yuan per gram in the Shenzhen market, up from around 796 yuan per gram in early September, indicating a significant increase [8] - Major jewelry brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook have set their gold prices at around 1,130 yuan per gram and 1,129 yuan per gram respectively [6] - Despite the high prices, consumer interest appears to be cautious, with many opting to observe the market rather than make purchases [9][11] Business Strategies - Jewelry retailers are adopting a "sell what you buy" strategy to mitigate risks associated with high inventory costs due to fluctuating gold prices, maintaining profit margins of 10% to 20% for weight-based pricing and 30% to 40% for fixed-price items [9][11] - The widening gap between gold sales and buyback prices, which has increased to over 30 yuan per gram, reflects the current market dynamics and consumer sentiment [11] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices may continue to rise, with UBS forecasting a potential increase to $4,200 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by factors such as a weakening dollar and increased central bank purchases [14][15] - Goldman Sachs maintains a target price of $4,000 per ounce for gold by mid-2026, suggesting that if a small percentage of U.S. Treasury holders shift their investments to gold, prices could approach $5,000 per ounce [15]