油价或将跌至“5字头”！麦格理警告：市场面临严重供应过剩

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie Group has lowered its oil price expectations, predicting a significant supply surplus in the market due to ongoing oil production expansion, with prices expected to fall to the $50 per barrel range in the coming quarters [2][3] Group 1: Oil Price Forecast - Analysts at Macquarie Group maintain a bearish outlook on the energy sector, citing that the market will face a severe supply surplus by the end of this year and into the first quarter of next year due to increased crude oil supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers [2] - Brent crude oil prices have fallen approximately 11% this year, with a continuous decline observed in September, as OPEC+ has significantly relaxed supply restrictions to regain market share [2] Group 2: OPEC+ Production Plans - OPEC+ is set to meet this weekend to finalize production levels for November, with discussions indicating a potential plan to accelerate production by approximately 500,000 barrels per day over three months, although OPEC has stated that no such plan is currently in place [2][3] - Analysts note that Saudi Arabia shows no signs of slowing down production increases, which could lead to a prolonged period of low prices unless various factors align to restore market balance [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Macquarie forecasts that the average price for WTI crude oil next year will be $57 per barrel, down from a previous estimate of $60, while Brent crude is expected to average $57 in Q1 and $59 in Q2 of next year [3] - The report indicates a projected global oil supply surplus of 4.63 million barrels per day in Q1 of next year, with surpluses expected to persist in the following quarters, albeit at decreasing levels [3] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has predicted that by 2026, global oil production will exceed consumption by an average of 3.33 million barrels per day, marking a historic supply surplus on an annual basis [3]