美国9月“小非农”意外录得负值，美联储降息预期强化

Core Insights - The ADP employment report for September shows a decrease of 32,000 jobs, marking the largest decline since March 2023 and the third drop in four months, falling short of the market expectation of a 50,000 increase [1] - Following the report, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and traders increased bets on two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, with the expected cut amount rising from 42 basis points to 46 basis points [1] Employment Trends - The construction sector saw a decrease of 5,000 jobs in September, following an increase of 16,000 in August [3] - The manufacturing sector experienced a reduction of 2,000 jobs in September, with a prior decrease of 7,000 in August [3] - The trade/transportation/utilities sector lost 13,000 jobs in September, down from a loss of 17,000 in August [4] - The financial services sector decreased by 9,000 jobs in September, compared to a 2,000 job loss in August [4] - Professional/business services saw a decline of 13,000 jobs in September, after an increase of 15,000 in August [4] Economic Context - The ADP report is particularly significant as the U.S. government shutdown may delay the release of the official employment report, making this data crucial for investors [4] - Historically, ADP data has not been a reliable predictor of the official employment report, but it has shown a notable decline in hiring earlier this year amid trade tensions [4] - The Federal Reserve will consider this data in their upcoming meeting on October 28-29, as they may not have access to the latest non-farm payroll report [4] Market Reactions - The employment market is showing clear signs of weakness, influencing market expectations for a potential resumption of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5] - Despite a relatively low unemployment rate of 4.3%, concerns about the labor market's condition are increasing [5] - The healthcare sector continues to show hiring strength, adding 3,000 jobs, which partially offsets the weakness seen in other sectors [5]