瑞士以黄金精炼投资换关税优惠，向特朗普政府抛出橄榄枝

Core Viewpoint - Switzerland is proposing to invest in the U.S. gold refining industry to persuade the Trump administration to lower the recently implemented 39% import tariff, which has negatively impacted Swiss exports and forced a downward revision of growth expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Impact and Trade Dynamics - The 39% tariff has significantly affected Swiss exports to the U.S., leading to a re-evaluation of growth forecasts for Switzerland [1]. - The gold trade accounted for over two-thirds of Switzerland's trade surplus with the U.S. in the first quarter, creating a distorted trade pattern that has drawn criticism from various stakeholders [2]. - The influx of gold into New York during the first quarter has altered the trade dynamics, with Swiss refineries operating at full capacity to convert 400-ounce London bars into 1-kilogram bars preferred in New York [2]. Group 2: Industry Response and Future Plans - Swiss refiners are considering relocating low-margin operations to the U.S. as part of their investment plans, although profitability will depend on sufficient demand in the U.S. market [3][4]. - The Swiss Precious Metals Producers and Traders Association has indicated that all refining members have plans for long-term investments in the U.S. [3]. - There are calls from Swiss politicians for a 5% tax on the gold industry to mitigate the economic impact of the Trump tariffs, highlighting the industry's reputation risk and lack of significant net economic benefit [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Viability and Market Conditions - The refining industry faces challenges in profitability, with minimal gains from refining operations despite high gold prices, as the profit per ounce remains low [5][6]. - The global largest refiner, Valcambi SA, has expressed skepticism about the feasibility of establishing new refining facilities in the U.S. due to market saturation and low profit margins [6][7]. - Industry leaders argue that imposing taxes on gold exports would likely end the trade, as the U.S. could source gold from other suppliers without incurring additional costs [5][6].