Prediction: Costco Stock Will Hit $1,000 in 2026

Core Viewpoint - Costco Wholesale has historically outperformed the market but is currently experiencing a rare period of underperformance, remaining flat year-to-date while the market has risen by 14% [2] Group 1: Business Model and Performance - Costco's retail model is distinct and superior, charging annual membership fees that allow customers to access low prices, leading to high savings and increased sales volume [4][5] - In the fiscal fourth quarter of 2025, Costco reported an 8% year-over-year sales increase, with comparable sales up 5.7% and e-commerce sales rising by 13.6% [6] - Earnings per share increased from $5.29 to $5.87, and membership fees rose by 14%, with total members reaching 81 million, a 6.3% increase from the previous year [6] Group 2: Membership Insights - Executive members, who pay double the standard membership fee of $130, represent 47.7% of total paid members but account for 74.2% of sales [7] - Renewal rates for memberships were strong at 92.3% in the U.S. and Canada, and 89.8% globally [7] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Challenges - Despite strong performance metrics, the market has shown some negative sentiment due to slowing comparable sales growth and lower-than-usual global renewals [10] - Management attributes the decline in renewal rates to an increase in online signups, which tend to renew at slightly lower rates, but sees this as a net advantage for attracting younger members [10]