损失38%的炼油产能，对俄罗斯意味着什么？

Group 1 - Ukraine's drone attack on the new Yaroslavl oil refinery in Russia has resulted in significant damage, with the facility's vacuum distillation unit affected and a long recovery time anticipated [2] - The refinery, located 700 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, has an annual refining capacity of 6.2 million tons, marking another loss for Russia's refining capabilities [2] - Russian authorities have attempted to downplay the incident, labeling it a "technical fire" during a "routine drill," but the reality remains that Ukraine has inflicted substantial damage on Russian infrastructure [2] Group 2 - Due to the loss of refining capacity, Russia is facing a domestic fuel shortage, leading to an extension of a temporary ban on gasoline exports and restrictions on other fuel types until December 31, 2025 [4] - Russia plans to import gasoline to address the escalating fuel crisis, with the Eurasian Economic Union eliminating import tariffs on gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel [4] Group 3 - The ongoing fuel crisis is impacting not only the Russian economy and civilian life but also military operations on the front lines, highlighting Ukraine's strategic targeting of Russia's energy sector [5][11] - Reports indicate that Russia has lost 38% of its refining capacity, equating to a daily loss of 338,000 tons of crude oil, which is higher than previous estimates of 32%-35% [9] - The shutdown of major refineries since August has led to a 20% reduction in domestic gasoline supply, exacerbating the fuel crisis [9] Group 4 - Ukraine's systematic attacks on Russian oil and gas pipelines are crippling the country's energy economy, further undermining Russia's ability to sustain its military efforts [11] - The fuel crisis is expected to lead to increased inflation and economic pressure on Russia, with a significant impact on public sentiment and confidence [12] - The lack of fuel for military operations is severely limiting Russia's capabilities, with reports of soldiers resorting to horseback due to fuel shortages [15]