ADP(US:ADP) 智通财经网·2025-10-01 13:22Core Insights - In September, the U.S. private sector experienced the largest decline in employment in two and a half years, indicating a weakening labor market, exacerbated by a government shutdown that has led to data reporting issues [1][3] - The ADP report revealed a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, contrasting with economists' expectations of an increase of 45,000 jobs [1][3] - The August employment data was revised down from an initial increase of 54,000 to a decrease of 3,000 [1] Employment Sector Analysis - Multiple sectors saw job reductions in September, with the education and healthcare sectors adding 33,000 jobs, partially offsetting the overall decline [3][4] - The leisure and hospitality sector lost 19,000 jobs due to the end of the vacation season, while other service sectors decreased by 16,000 jobs, professional and business services by 13,000, trade, transportation, and utilities by 7,000, and construction by 5,000 [3][4] - Service providers reduced 28,000 jobs, while goods-producing industries saw a decrease of 3,000 jobs [4] Business Size Impact - Small businesses with fewer than 50 employees lost 40,000 jobs, while larger companies with 500 or more employees added 33,000 jobs [4] Economic Growth Context - Despite a strong economic growth rate of 3.8% in Q2, the employment data reflects a cautious hiring attitude among U.S. employers [4] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projects a Q3 growth rate of 3.9% [4] Labor Market Concerns - The current unemployment rate remains relatively low at 4.3%, but concerns about the labor market are increasing, with risks of labor demand falling below supply [6] - The market had anticipated an increase of 51,000 jobs in the upcoming Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) non-farm payroll report, which includes government jobs [6] Wage Growth Insights - Despite the slowdown in hiring, wages grew by 4.5% year-over-year in September, remaining stable compared to August, although the wage growth rate for job switchers fell to 6.6%, down 0.5 percentage points from August [6] Data Reporting Adjustments - The unexpected decline in employment numbers may also be attributed to data analysis issues, with ADP recalibrating past employment statistics based on the BLS's September benchmark data [6][7] - The QCEW data, which is used for annual adjustments of overall employment data, indicated a significant reduction of 911,000 jobs as of March this year [7]