政经｜地方“十五五”规划创新与投资风向标

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the critical juncture of the "14th Five-Year Plan" (15th Five-Year Plan) in the context of global order restructuring, economic transformation, and China's modernization efforts, emphasizing the need for innovative planning and strategic foresight to navigate these challenges [2][38]. International Environment Trends - Trend 1: The acceleration of the "East Rising, West Declining" power structure, with emerging economies gaining influence, necessitating a focus on self-innovation in key areas like chips and energy in the planning process [5]. - Trend 2: The global economy is characterized by low growth, high debt, high inflation, and a shift towards low-carbon transformation, requiring structural reforms to mitigate debt risks and enhance supply chain resilience [6]. - Trend 3: The advent of digital civilization and industrial revolution marks a critical point, with data becoming a core productivity factor, necessitating the establishment of a dual pillar system of "data sovereignty + technology standards" [7]. - Trend 4: The emphasis on security and development, with a shift in global supply chains towards safety, necessitating a focus on domestic production and regional alternatives in strategic sectors [8]. Domestic Environment Dimensions - Dimension 1: The need for deep reforms to drive domestic demand upgrades, focusing on quality and efficiency rather than speed [9]. - Dimension 2: The "carbon peak" initiative driving green and low-carbon growth, positioning the dual carbon goals as a key economic growth driver [10]. - Dimension 3: Addressing "bottleneck" technologies through a new system that combines state-driven and market-driven innovation [12]. - Dimension 4: The digitization of social governance to reshape public service models, leveraging AI and smart city initiatives [13]. Planning Framework Structure - Focus 1: Emphasizing "four-dimensional coordination" to enhance the strategic depth of planning [16]. - Focus 2: Aligning the 15th Five-Year Plan with the 2035 long-term goals, ensuring coherence in development strategies [18]. - Focus 3: Establishing a baseline of safety and resilience across various sectors, including finance and industry [19]. - Focus 4: Integrating digital and physical spaces in urban planning to enhance resource allocation and governance [20][21]. Evaluation and Assessment - Emphasis on conducting six major assessments, including fiscal capacity, industrial competitiveness, population-service matching, resource carrying capacity, policy effectiveness, and risk resilience [22][23][24][25][26]. Strategic Mapping - Development of four key maps: strategic goal orientation, regional spatial planning, industrial upgrade pathways, and resource element layout [27][28][29][30]. Implementation Support - Focus on compiling a list of strategic deployments and conducting specialized research in key areas such as investment attraction and public service enhancement [31][32]. Innovative Planning Methods - The need for multi-level connection mechanisms, integration of big data and AI technologies, and the creation of immersive, interactive planning systems to enhance transparency and effectiveness [35][36][38].