Private Payrolls Show Weakness as U.S. Government Shuts Down

Economic Data Summary - The 30-year mortgage rate increased from 6.34% to 6.46%, leading to a 12.7% decline in mortgage applications, with purchases down 1% and refinances down 20.6% [1][2] - The ADP employment report indicated a loss of 32,000 jobs, with the previous month's figure revised down from an increase of 54,000 to a decrease of 3,000 [2][3] - The annual rebenchmarking of the national employment report resulted in a reduction of 43,000 jobs for September, highlighting ongoing weakness in the labor market [3][4] Labor Market Insights - The ADP data showed that all company sizes except those with 500 or more employees experienced job losses, with larger companies gaining 33,000 jobs [4] - Jobless claims remain relatively strong, but there is a lack of hiring, indicating a stall in the labor market [10][4] - The overall labor market is not improving, with the ADP report suggesting a negative trend in government hiring that may affect future employment numbers [8][9] Market Reactions - The markets are slightly lower but have recovered from pre-market lows, with historical context suggesting that government shutdowns have not significantly impacted market performance [5][7] - Lower dollar values, decreasing yields, and falling crude oil prices indicate a rally in bonds, despite the labor market's stagnation [9][10]