中概股逆势上涨，美联储降息概率飙至99%，美元、美债收益率跳水

Core Points - The U.S. stock market opened lower on October 1, with major indices declining, while Chinese concept stocks rose against the trend [1][2] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October has surged to 99% following disappointing employment data [5][6] - The U.S. government has entered a shutdown, affecting hundreds of thousands of federal employees and delaying key economic data releases [5][6] Group 1: Market Performance - The Dow Jones index rose by 0.08%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices fell by 0.12% and 0.1%, respectively [2] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 0.58%, with notable gains in JD.com (up 3%) and Vipshop (up 2%), while BOSS Zhipin and iQIYI saw declines of over 1% [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped by 5.6 basis points, indicating a significant market reaction [4] - The U.S. dollar index experienced a sharp decline, falling over 0.3% during trading [5] - The latest ADP employment report showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, contrary to expectations of an increase of 51,000 jobs [5] Group 3: Government Shutdown Implications - The government shutdown has led to the suspension of services and the furlough of federal employees, raising concerns about the economic impact and governance capabilities [6][8] - The shutdown is compounded by the potential for permanent layoffs, which could exacerbate economic challenges and raise governance concerns [6] - The U.S. budget deficit has consistently exceeded 6% of GDP, with projections indicating a deficit of 6.4% for the 2024 fiscal year, highlighting a growing fiscal burden [8]