US stocks down as government shutdown starts, why a shutdown makes it harder for the Fed

Market Overview - The U.S. is experiencing its first government shutdown in seven years, raising concerns about its implications for the markets [9][10] - All three major indices opened lower, with the Dow down 0.2%, Nasdaq down 0.6%, and S&P 500 down 0.4% [4][8] - Despite the government shutdown, the S&P 500 has shown a 3% increase over the past month, indicating some resilience in the market [5][6] Economic Data and Federal Reserve - The government shutdown will prevent the release of key economic data, including the jobs report and potentially the CPI, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making [11][30] - The Fed may have to rely on private data due to the lack of official reports, which could lead to uncertainty in monetary policy [15][16] - Core CPI has accelerated for four consecutive months, raising concerns about inflation risks despite a weakening job market [31][32] Company Focus: Nike - Nike's revenue unexpectedly increased by 1% to $11.02 billion, contrary to expectations of a nearly 5% decline, which has positively impacted its stock [36][37] - The company anticipates a $1.5 billion hit from tariffs, an increase from the previous estimate of $1 billion, affecting its margins [38][40] - Nike's U.S. running business saw a significant 20% increase, while challenges remain in the Chinese market due to lower foot traffic and promotional pricing [44][49] Investment Sentiment - Analysts express cautious optimism regarding Nike's turnaround plan, emphasizing the need for sustained revenue growth and effective management of tariff impacts [42][43] - The market remains focused on the potential for further layoffs in the government sector, which could exacerbate existing labor market weaknesses [24][25] - There is a general bullish sentiment around gold and other precious metals, driven by a weakening dollar and ongoing central bank purchases [20][21]