美国《非洲增长与机遇法案》前途未卜

Core Points - The Trump administration is inclined to extend the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) for another year, but this does not eliminate uncertainties surrounding future trade between the U.S. and sub-Saharan Africa [1] - AGOA has provided preferential treatment for exports from 35 African countries to the U.S. since 2000, allowing thousands of products to enter the U.S. market duty-free, significantly benefiting sectors like agriculture and textiles [1] - The International Trade Centre (ITC) warns that the termination of AGOA would directly threaten the apparel and tuna exports of several African nations, with South Africa facing a potential 17% decline in export volume in 2024, particularly in metals, automobiles, and chemicals [1] - A report from Capital Economics asserts that the imposition of equivalent tariffs by Trump effectively nullifies AGOA, indicating a severance of U.S.-Africa relations [1] - Not all countries face the same challenges from the potential termination of AGOA; Angola, as a major oil producer, is exempt from new U.S. taxes, while Senegal, a key zircon supplier, stands to gain market share in the U.S. due to increased tariffs on competitors [1] - Even if the U.S. formally announces a one-year extension of AGOA, it will not address the fundamental issues, merely providing a negotiation window for African nations, which must diversify their trade partnerships as China and the EU are already taking action [1]