见证历史！金价，新纪录！商家：“不敢轻易增加库存”

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have reached new historical highs, with London gold surpassing $3,895 per ounce and COMEX gold exceeding $3,900 per ounce, driven by a weaker dollar and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][8]. Market Trends - The rising international gold prices have led to record high prices for gold jewelry in the consumer market, coinciding with the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, resulting in a small surge in gold consumption [3][4]. - In Shenzhen's Shui Bei market, the price of gold jewelry has increased to approximately 888 yuan per gram, up from around 796 yuan per gram in early September, indicating a significant price rise [6]. Retail Strategies - Retailers are facing challenges in inventory management due to fluctuating gold prices, adopting a strategy of purchasing gold based on sales to mitigate risks associated with high inventory costs [6]. - The profit margins for gold jewelry vary, with margins for weight-based pricing typically between 10% to 20%, while "one-price" gold jewelry can have margins of 30% to 40% [6]. Consumer Behavior - Despite the rising prices, many consumers are in a wait-and-see mode, with some retailers noting that the number of customers has not significantly increased, although there is potential for higher foot traffic during the holiday [6][7]. - The gap between gold sales prices and buyback prices has widened, with the current buyback price around 857 yuan per gram, indicating a price difference of over 30 yuan, compared to a previous range of 10-15 yuan [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices may continue to rise, with UBS forecasting prices to reach $4,200 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by factors such as central bank purchases and increased ETF investments [8]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a target price of $4,000 per ounce for gold by mid-2026, suggesting that if a small percentage of U.S. Treasury holders shift their investments to gold, prices could potentially approach $5,000 per ounce [8].