Visa's stablecoin pilot could turn a narrative headwind into a tailwind, says Mizuho's Dan Dolev

Core Viewpoint - Visa has recently underperformed compared to the Dow, S&P 500, and peers like Mastercard and American Express, but the launch of a stablecoin pilot program may turn previous headwinds into tailwinds for the company [1][2]. Visa's Stablecoin Initiative - The narrative around Visa's stablecoin initiative has shifted from negative to positive, as the company is now piloting stablecoin transactions via Visa Direct, which processes over $1 trillion and is growing at a 20% CAGR [3][4]. - Visa Direct accounts for approximately 20-25% of Visa's debit volumes, indicating its significant role in the company's operations [4]. Market Dynamics and Competition - Visa and Mastercard are positioned as essential intermediaries in the stablecoin market, allowing users to interchangeably switch between various stablecoins, including USDC and Tether [7][8]. - The competitive landscape suggests that not all stablecoin projects will succeed, with potential losers in the market, particularly Circle, which is facing challenges due to stagnant USDC circulation and declining revenue from treasury investments [10]. Impact on Traditional Banking - The rise of stablecoins is seen as a disruption to traditional banks, as cross-border transactions are increasingly moving away from bank networks [11]. - While banks may not be losing financially, they are losing their status as the pillars of global finance due to the growing influence of stablecoins [13].