2025年6月23日星期一 ➢ 美军突袭伊朗核设施；联储理事料最 快7月降息。A股持续收低。上证指数 收盘跌0.07%报3359.9点，深证成指跌 0.47%，创业板指跌0.83%。脑机接口 概念回落。港股下跌。恒生指数收盘 涨1.26%报23530.48点，恒生科技指数 涨0.88%，恒生中国企业指数涨1.38%。 大金融强势，油气股放缓。大盘成交 额2224.23亿港元。外盘方面，欧洲三 大股指收盘涨跌不一。美国三大股指 收盘涨跌不一，道指涨0.08%，标普 500指数跌0.22%报5967.84点，纳指跌 0.51%。美军周末突袭伊朗三处核设施， 德黑兰誓言保留一切反击选项。特朗 普再次威胁解雇鲍威尔，美联储理事 Waller预计最快可在7月降息。 资料来源：彭博 | 23530.48 | 1.26 | 17.30 | | --- | --- | --- | | 8527.07 | 1.38 | 16.97 | | 5133.14 | 0.88 | 14.88 | | 130.57 | -0.74 | -8.69 | | 3359.90 | -0.07 | 0.24 | | 10005.03 | -0. ...

Group 1: Stablecoin Legislation - The United States Senate approved stablecoin legislation known as the GENIUS Act, which aims to regulate stablecoins and require issuers to maintain sufficient reserves and undergo regular audits [1] - This legislation is expected to encourage customer adoption of stablecoins, posing a potential threat to Visa's payment volume [2] Group 2: Merchant Adoption of Stablecoins - Major retailers like Walmart and Amazon are exploring the creation of their own stablecoins to reduce high credit card transaction fees, which range from 2% to 3% [3] - By adopting stablecoins, these retailers could save billions annually in fees currently paid to the financial system [4] Group 3: Challenges for Stablecoins - Replicating Visa's scale and the rewards associated with credit cards presents a significant challenge for stablecoins, as Visa has a vast network accepted by 150 million merchants and processes over $15 trillion in payments annually [8] - The network effect creates a competitive advantage for Visa, making it difficult for stablecoins to achieve similar acceptance and usage [9] Group 4: Visa's Competitive Position - Despite concerns over stablecoins, Visa maintains a strong competitive advantage and scale that stablecoin issuers are unlikely to match in the near future [11] - Visa's earnings per share (EPS) grew 10% year over year, indicating steady growth, although the stock trades at a premium price-to-earnings ratio of 34 [12]

Core Viewpoint - Visa faces emerging competition from retail giants Walmart and Amazon, which are exploring the launch of their own stablecoins, potentially threatening Visa's traditional payment network [1][4]. Visa's Position on Stablecoins - Visa has recognized the growing interest in stablecoins and has initiated a seven-day-a-week stablecoin settlement service, achieving over $200 million in cumulative stablecoin volume [4]. - The company is investing in the crypto space and has built a team of experts to navigate this evolving landscape [4]. Financial Performance - In fiscal Q2 2025, Visa reported a 9% revenue growth, generating $9.6 billion, while net income was $4.6 billion, reflecting a 2% year-over-year decline due to a $992 million litigation provision [8]. - Adjusted for special items, Visa's net income would have increased by 6% year-over-year to $5.4 billion [8]. Shareholder Returns - Visa has a strong capital return strategy, increasing its dividend for the 16th consecutive year, with a quarterly dividend of $0.59 per share, yielding 2.3% [9]. - The company has reduced its share count by 9.2% over the past three years and spent $4.5 billion on stock buybacks in the most recent quarter, with a new $30 billion buyback program approved [10]. Market Position and Valuation - Visa maintains a dominant position in the global payments industry, supported by its extensive network and regulatory expertise, which provides a strong competitive moat [12]. - Despite its strong fundamentals, Visa's stock is trading at 36 times earnings, indicating that much of the positive outlook may already be reflected in its current price [13]. Conclusion - Visa is well-positioned to adapt to the rise of stablecoins, but valuation concerns suggest that investors may prefer to hold rather than buy at the current price [15].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Senate passed the "Stablecoin Innovation Act," marking a significant shift for stablecoins from a "gray area" to "compliance operation," which has triggered a surge in the capital market, particularly for Circle's stock, which rose over 675% in just over ten days [2][4]. Group 1: Market Impact and Predictions - Circle's stock price skyrocketed from $31 to $240 following the legislative approval, indicating strong market enthusiasm for stablecoins [2]. - Citi's report predicts that the stablecoin market could reach $3.7 trillion by 2030 under optimistic scenarios, driven by regulatory support and widespread institutional adoption [2][12]. Group 2: Retail Giants' Interest - Retail giants like Amazon and Walmart are exploring the issuance of their own stablecoins to address high payment processing fees, which can amount to billions annually [4][5]. - Amazon's e-commerce revenue is projected to reach $447.5 billion in 2024, while Walmart's is expected to be $120.9 billion, highlighting the significant financial incentive for these companies to adopt stablecoins [5]. Group 3: Cost Savings and Efficiency - Current payment systems impose transaction fees of 1.5% to 3%, leading to potential annual costs of $6.7 billion to $13.4 billion for Amazon and $1.8 billion to $3.6 billion for Walmart [6]. - Transitioning to stablecoin payments could reduce transaction costs to around 0.1%, allowing these retailers to save billions annually [6]. Group 4: Data Control and Customer Insights - By issuing their own stablecoins, companies like Amazon can gain better control over user data, enhancing their ability to analyze consumer behavior and optimize marketing strategies [7]. - Walmart's patent application in 2019 indicated plans to use blockchain to record consumer habits, potentially offering discounts to enhance customer loyalty [7]. Group 5: Traditional Financial Institutions' Response - Traditional banks face potential deposit outflows of up to $6.6 trillion due to the rise of stablecoins, which could weaken their ability to attract deposits and extend credit [8][9]. - Major banks, including Bank of America and JPMorgan, are exploring joint stablecoin issuance to maintain relevance in the evolving financial landscape [9]. Group 6: Payment Giants' Adaptation - Visa has begun investing in stablecoin startups and forming partnerships to facilitate stablecoin use in cross-border payments, indicating a proactive approach to the emerging competition [10][11]. - The banking sector is also looking to issue their own stablecoins to retain customer relationships and transaction flows, rather than ceding control to third-party issuers [12]. Group 7: Challenges Facing Stablecoins - Analysts express skepticism about the immediate impact of stablecoins on traditional payment systems, citing consumer acceptance as a critical barrier [14]. - Current stablecoins are predominantly dollar-denominated, limiting their effectiveness in local currency transactions and posing liquidity challenges [14]. - The lack of effective fraud prevention mechanisms in stablecoin transactions raises concerns about consumer confidence, as completed transactions are irreversible [14][15].

Shares of Visa (V -4.94%), a leading financial services company, are up 12% this year, significantly outperforming broader equities. The company owes that partly to its latest quarterly update, which was strong. Some investors may also feel that Visa is a great stock to own if President Donald Trump's tariff policies lead to inflation, an environment in which Visa can thrive.However, beyond recent financial results and what may or may not happen in the short run, looking at Visa's underlying business reveal ...

Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported that Amazon and Walmart are planning to release their own stablecoin to bypass traditional payment methods offered mainly by Visa ( V )Hi there, welcome to my profile. My name is Eugenio Catone, I live in Italy and I am 27 years old.In 2023 I graduated in Business Administration and I completed CFA level 1 in 2024. I am currently a Popular Investor on the investing platform eToro, you can see there my public portfolio. My interest in financial markets started abou ...

The tension has been building up for a while, and the 'Stablecoin Threat' has now started to takeI aim to invest in companies with perfect qualitative attributes, buy them at an attractive price based on fundamentals, and hold them forever. I hope to publish articles covering such companies approximately 3 times per week, with extensive quarterly follow-ups and constant updates.I manage a concentrated portfolio targeted at avoiding losers and maximizing exposure to big winners. This means that often I'll ra ...

加密货币交易所Yellow Card Financial与支付巨头Visa(V.US)签署了一项协议，以推动在新兴市场使用稳 定币进行跨境支付。成立于2016年的Yellow Card希望在其运营的约20个非洲国家推广稳定币，并利用 无处不在的Visa平台来覆盖其目标市场。 他表示，Yellow Card计划今年至少在一个非洲市场与Visa合作推出稳定币交易，之后再扩展到其他市 场。此举得益于非洲数字技术的普及率不断提高，加纳、肯尼亚、南非和尼日利亚等国家正在制定该领 域的监管规定。 Yellow Card高级法律顾问Edline Murungi表示，肯尼亚的立法草案《虚拟资产服务提供商法案》是非洲 最先进的法案，因为它区分了稳定资产和投机资产，并承认了各种用例。 Murungi表示："这些用例将真正改变整个行业。如果其他国家也效仿，那么肯尼亚将成为许多数字资产 活动的中心。" Yellow Card表示，毛里求斯于2021年成为首个颁布此类法律的非洲国家，而博茨瓦纳则于2022年颁发 了首张许可证。六个国家和中部非洲经济与货币共同体已制定了相关立法。 Yellow Card联合创始人兼首席执行官Chris ...

Group 1: Stock Performance - Visa closed at $340.38, reflecting a -4.88% change from the previous day, which is less than the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.03% [1] - Over the past month, Visa shares have decreased by 2.45%, underperforming the Business Services sector's loss of 1.86% and the S&P 500's gain of 0.6% [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast - Visa is expected to report an EPS of $2.84, indicating a 17.36% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - The consensus estimate for revenue is projected at $9.84 billion, representing a 10.6% rise from the equivalent quarter last year [2] Group 3: Full-Year Estimates - Full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $11.35 per share and revenue of $39.6 billion, reflecting year-over-year changes of +12.94% and +10.22%, respectively [3] - Recent modifications to analyst estimates for Visa can indicate short-term business trends, with positive revisions seen as a favorable sign for the business outlook [3] Group 4: Valuation Metrics - Visa has a Forward P/E ratio of 31.53, which is a premium compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 15.33 [5] - The PEG ratio for Visa is currently 2.41, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 1.26 [6] Group 5: Industry Ranking - The Financial Transaction Services industry, part of the Business Services sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 59, placing it in the top 24% of over 250 industries [6] - The Zacks Industry Rank assesses the strength of industry groups based on the average Zacks Rank of individual stocks, with top-rated industries outperforming the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

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