Buy Nike Stock After Crushing Its Q1 Expectations?

Core Insights - Nike's fiscal first quarter results exceeded expectations, with stock rising over 6% following the announcement [1][2] - Despite challenges in digital sales and tariffs in China, strong performance in wholesale distribution and North America contributed to the positive results [1] Financial Performance - Nike reported Q1 earnings of $0.49 per share, down from $0.70 year-over-year, but surpassed EPS expectations of $0.27 by 81% [3] - Q1 sales reached $11.72 billion, an increase from $11.58 billion a year ago, exceeding estimates of $11 billion by 6% [3][4] Revenue Guidance - For Q2 FY2026, Nike expects a low single-digit revenue decline, aligning with the Zacks Consensus estimate of $11.95 billion, indicating a 3% decline [5] - Gross margins for Q2 are anticipated to decrease by approximately 300 to 375 basis points, with a net headwind of 175 basis points from new tariffs [8] Sales Estimates - Zacks Consensus estimates for upcoming quarters show projected sales of $11.95 billion for the current quarter and $11.40 billion for the next quarter, with a year-over-year decline of 3.24% expected [9] - Sales are projected to dip 1% in FY26 but are expected to rebound with a 6% increase in FY27, reaching $48.59 billion [8][9] Valuation Metrics - Nike stock is trading at less than 2X forward sales, compared to the industry average of 1X, but has a forward earnings multiple of 41.7X, significantly higher than the S&P 500 and industry average of 21.7X [10] - The current valuation suggests a moderately stretched P/E ratio, which may require significant earnings estimate revisions for a buy rating [12]