Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-02 01:14Market Overview - Despite initial declines due to the U.S. government shutdown, U.S. stock indices reversed course and closed higher, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 showing gains [1] - U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.11% [2] - The healthcare sector saw gains driven by optimism from a Pfizer agreement with the White House, contributing to a narrowing of market losses [1] Economic Data and Employment - The government shutdown poses a risk of missing key economic data needed for Federal Reserve decisions, with potential delays in non-farm payroll reports [3][5] - The ADP report indicated an unexpected decline in U.S. employment for September, aligning with other data suggesting a slowdown in the labor market [4] - Manufacturing activity in the U.S. contracted for the seventh consecutive month in September, although the market reaction was muted [4] Investor Sentiment - Investors are concerned about the duration of the government shutdown and its impact on economic data, but historical precedents suggest limited macroeconomic effects from such events [5] - Some analysts believe that for the shutdown to significantly impact the stock market, it would need to last longer and result in substantial layoffs or adverse conditions in the bond market [5] Sector Performance - Semiconductor stocks experienced significant gains, with Micron Technology rising nearly 6% and TSMC reaching a new historical high [5] - Price increases announced by NAND Flash manufacturers, including SanDisk and Micron, have sparked bullish expectations for the storage industry, with Morgan Stanley predicting a price increase cycle that may last until 2026 [5] Federal Reserve Independence - The U.S. Supreme Court temporarily blocked Trump's attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, marking a victory for the Fed's independence [7][8] - The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for October 28-29, where decisions on potential interest rate cuts will be made [7]