金荣中国：“小非农”大幅低于预期，金价高位回落加剧短线震荡

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced a slight increase on October 1, closing at $3868.44 per ounce after reaching a high of $3895.19 and a low of $3837.90 [1] Employment Data - The ADP employment report for September showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, falling short of the market expectation of 50,000 and down from the previous value of 54,000 [3] - The chief economist at ADP noted a cautious hiring trend among U.S. employers despite strong economic growth in Q2 [3] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for September recorded at 49.1, surpassing the market expectation of 49 and the previous value of 48.7, indicating a slight slowdown in manufacturing activity contraction [4] Government Shutdown - The U.S. government faced its first day of a shutdown, with the Senate rejecting a temporary funding bill, and voting is set to pause on October 2 [4] - The Vice President expressed that the government shutdown is not expected to last long [4] - Fitch Ratings highlighted that the shutdown underscores challenges in policy-making and governance, while the uncertainty in U.S. policy is expected to persist [5] Gold ETF Holdings - The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold ETF globally, increased its holdings by 6.01 tons, bringing the total to 1018.89 tons [6] Federal Reserve Outlook - According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is 0.6%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 99.4% [7] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed signs of fatigue after reaching high levels, with a long upper shadow indicating potential topping [9] - Short-term price movements suggest a gradual pullback, with the 60-day moving average providing support [9] - The overall trend remains bullish, but caution is advised for short-term trading strategies [10][11]