美国政府停摆，近百万公务员恐停薪

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown that began on October 1 has not significantly impacted the stock market, with major indices showing positive performance, particularly in AI-related stocks [2][3]. Group 1: Government Shutdown Impact - Approximately 40% of federal employees (around 900,000) may be forced to take unpaid leave due to the shutdown, with salary payments delayed until funding is restored [2]. - Historical data shows that previous government shutdowns have typically lasted only a few days, and the overall fiscal impact is expected to be minimal [6]. - Analysts note that the current political climate has made it increasingly difficult for Congress to pass annual budgets, leading to heightened risks of prolonged shutdowns [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite the shutdown, the stock market has shown resilience, with the S&P 500 index surpassing 6700 points, and notable gains in tech stocks like Intel and Vertiv [2]. - Financial markets generally do not react strongly to government shutdowns, as evidenced by past trends where U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar often decline during shutdowns but recover quickly once funding is restored [7]. - The market is currently buoyed by positive sentiment surrounding interest rate cuts and ongoing AI trends, with several investment banks projecting the S&P 500 to exceed 7000 points [2][9]. Group 3: Economic Data Concerns - The shutdown may delay the release of key economic data, including the non-farm payroll report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which could lead to market volatility [4][5]. - Historical examples indicate that previous shutdowns have resulted in significant delays for important economic reports, affecting market expectations and central bank decisions [5][9]. - The potential for delayed employment data raises concerns about the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed decisions regarding interest rate adjustments [8][9].