“美国政府关门”交易指南：时长是关键，金银更避险

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government is facing a shutdown for the first time in nearly seven years, leading to increased uncertainty in financial markets [1] - According to Polymarket, nearly 70% of users believe the shutdown will last until at least October 10, with 41% expecting it to extend into late October [1] - Citigroup analysts highlight that the duration of the shutdown is crucial for asset performance, suggesting that current market pricing may be overly optimistic [1][2] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that long-term shutdowns lead to significant divergence in stock and bond performance, increasing market volatility [1][9] - In the case of long-term shutdowns, gold and silver are considered more reliable hedges compared to the U.S. dollar [1][16] - The report categorizes shutdowns lasting less than five days as "short-term events" and those exceeding five days as "long-term events" [3] Group 3 - The VIX index, which measures stock market volatility, tends to rise steadily during long-term shutdowns and gradually dissipates afterward [9] - Companies with direct or indirect government revenue streams are likely to face greater pressure during shutdowns, as evidenced by past events [11] - In long-term shutdowns, gold typically sees an average increase of 2%, while the U.S. dollar index often performs poorly until the shutdown is resolved [16][20]