铁矿石“发烧”后遗症：钢铁行业的半年报值得期待吗？

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry in A-shares has seen significant stock price increases, but the financial performance of most companies is declining, with only a minority showing positive earnings forecasts for the first half of 2019 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the report, the highest-performing steel stock in A-shares is Daye Special Steel, with a cumulative increase of over 50% year-to-date [1]. - Among the nine steel companies that have released mid-year earnings forecasts, only three are expected to report positive earnings, representing less than 40% [2]. Group 2: Cost Pressures - The steel industry is facing significant cost pressures due to soaring iron ore prices, which have increased by 83.52% since the beginning of the year [4]. - The average profit of member steel companies of the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) dropped by 18.15% year-on-year, with total profits amounting to 855 billion yuan from January to May 2019 [6]. Group 3: Production and Demand - In June 2019, crude steel production reached 87.53 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%, while steel production was 107.1 million tons, up 12.6% year-on-year [6]. - The real estate sector, a major consumer of steel, saw a 10.9% year-on-year increase in development investment, totaling 61.609 billion yuan from January to June 2019 [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The steel industry is entering a demand off-season, with consumption levels decreasing compared to previous periods, but there is potential for recovery in infrastructure investment due to policy support [9]. - The iron ore market is expected to enter a bottoming phase, with supply-side reforms and environmental regulations impacting production and pricing dynamics [9].