道富发出强烈看涨信号：4000美元的金价只是时间问题！

Core Viewpoint - The unprecedented rise in gold prices reached a new peak in September, marking the largest quarterly increase in over 40 years, with further potential for growth anticipated [1][3]. Group 1: Price Performance - Gold prices increased nearly 17% over the past three months, the best quarterly performance since Q2 1982 [3]. - Year-to-date, gold has risen 47%, the strongest increase since 1979 [3]. - As of Thursday, gold was trading around $3,870 per ounce, with expectations that it could reach $4,000 per ounce in the future [1][4]. Group 2: Investment Demand - September saw unprecedented investment demand for gold, with record inflows into gold ETFs, particularly the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), which added 35.2 tons of gold in September [3]. - On September 19, a single-day inflow of 18.9 tons was recorded, the largest on record [3]. - Despite the high demand, gold ETF holdings remain significantly below the peak levels seen in 2020, indicating that gold is not yet an over-allocated asset [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current market conditions are driving investors to seek gold as a hedge against unusual market circumstances [3]. - The Federal Reserve's new easing cycle is creating a "bullish steepening" curve in the U.S. bond market, which is expected to weaken the dollar and provide new momentum for gold [4]. - The ongoing uncertainty in the U.S. and global economy continues to enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The analyst believes that while gold reaching $4,000 is a matter of "when" rather than "if," immediate upward movement is not expected [4]. - A new support level for gold is anticipated at $3,500, with continued buying interest expected on dips [4]. - The potential impact of a U.S. government shutdown on gold and the economy remains uncertain, but prolonged shutdowns could have negative growth consequences, which would be beneficial for gold [4].