又让中国背锅！印度制造业受挫、230亿打水漂，狡辩责任全在中国

Core Insights - The Indian government's termination of the $23 billion production-linked incentive scheme signifies a failure in its ambition to become a manufacturing powerhouse, aiming to replace China as the "world's factory" [1] Group 1: Subsidy Issues - The manufacturing sector's contribution to India's GDP has decreased from 15% to 14.3%, with the actual disbursement rate of the planned subsidies being less than 8% [3][4] - Only $1.73 billion of the allocated subsidies has been disbursed, which is less than 8% of the total budget [4] Group 2: Corruption and Bureaucracy - Corruption and bureaucratic inefficiencies are major obstacles, as exemplified by the experience of economist Jayant Bhandari, who faced bribery and fraudulent practices when attempting to invest in logistics [6] - The misuse of subsidy funds has led to non-manufacturing entities, such as yoga centers and wedding companies, receiving manufacturing subsidies, while genuine manufacturers abandon the process due to complexity [6] Group 3: Comparison with Other Countries - In contrast to India, government subsidies in China can leverage three times the social investment, while Vietnam achieves a 90% subsidy implementation rate [6] - India's manufacturing sector has seen a decline from 15.4% in 2020 to 14.3% in 2024, highlighting a lack of effective industrial policy [6] Group 4: External Blame and Investment Decline - The Indian government has shifted blame to external factors, claiming Western nations suppress India while supporting China, despite evidence of significant foreign investment withdrawal [10] - Foreign direct investment in India is projected to plummet by 85% in 2024, marking a ten-year low, due to punitive measures against multinational companies [10] Group 5: Fiscal Crisis and Elite Perspectives - India's fiscal situation is deteriorating, with external debt expected to reach $2.1 trillion by the end of 2024, necessitating $200 billion annually just for interest payments [12] - There is a prevailing belief among Indian elites that the country should bypass manufacturing and focus on high-value services, despite the reality that the IT sector can only absorb a fraction of the available workforce [13] Group 6: Infrastructure Challenges - India's infrastructure is significantly lagging, with only 10% of China's highway mileage and long cargo wait times at ports, which hampers manufacturing competitiveness [13] - Only 57% of manufacturing firms can ensure stable electricity supply, further disadvantaging India's manufacturing sector [13] Group 7: Conclusion - The decline of India's manufacturing sector is attributed to internal issues such as corruption, inefficient systems, and poor infrastructure, compounded by a misguided focus on shortcuts rather than foundational industrial development [15][17]