Ge Long Hui·2025-10-02 06:59Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong gold sector has seen a significant rally, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets due to the U.S. government shutdown and escalating geopolitical tensions [1][7][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - Chinese Silver Group led the gains with a rise of over 30%, followed by Zijin Gold International with an increase of over 13%, and Tongguan Gold up by over 11% [1][2]. - Other companies such as Lingbao Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Zijin Mining also experienced notable increases in their stock prices [1][2]. Group 2: Gold Price Trends - COMEX gold futures showed a slight pullback but remained above the critical level of $3,890 [2]. - Spot gold maintained a high level around $3,868, providing strong support for related stocks [4]. Group 3: Drivers of Demand - The core reason for the sector's rise is the increased demand for safe-haven assets, triggered by the U.S. government shutdown, which is the first political deadlock in nearly seven years [7][8]. - The shutdown has led to significant economic uncertainty, with the U.S. Labor Department halting data collection and publication, affecting key economic indicators [8]. Group 4: Geopolitical Factors - Escalating geopolitical conflicts, particularly the recent military actions by Russia against Ukraine, have further heightened market risk aversion [9]. - The potential for further conflict in Europe has contributed to the attractiveness of gold as a hedge against political risk [9]. Group 5: Future Gold Price Predictions - Central bank gold purchases are a significant factor supporting rising gold prices, with global official gold reserves increasing by 166 tons in Q2 [10]. - Predictions indicate that gold prices could reach $4,200 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and increased demand for safe-haven assets [10][11].